By: Dipak Kurmi
The BJP’s influence grows in the Northeast region; the upcoming elections will witness a clash between the traditional power centers and the emerging forces. This contest between the old guard and the new promises to be an interesting battle, with the stakes being high for the BJP.
In the BJP-ruled state of Tripura, voting is scheduled to take place on February 16, while in the states of Meghalaya and Nagaland, where the saffron party is part of coalitions led by regional stalwarts, simultaneous voting will take place on February 27. In addition, on the same day, by-elections for six vacant assembly seats in Arunachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand and Bengal are also slated to be held. Furthermore, the parliamentary constituency of Lakshadweep will also hold its election on February 27, thereby making it a crucial day for the Indian electoral process.
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Challenges in the BJP-IPFT Alliance pose political difficulties in Tripura
The state of Tripura is a crucial political battleground where the BJP, in alliance with the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT), is in power and seeking to consolidate its presence with a new and daring strategy. In 2018, the BJP made significant gains in Tripura, ending the
long-standing rule of the Left. However, to counteract an anti-incumbency wave, the party had to remove Biplab Deb from the chief minister’s position in 2022. Currently, the BJP’s alliance with the IPFT in Tripura is facing challenges, and the upcoming elections will be crucial in determining the future course of politics in the state.
Amit Shah, a senior leader of the BJP, recently launched the “Jana Vishwas Yatra” to gather support for the party, while the Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) countered it with a joint rally in Agartala. With the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) gaining traction in the region under the leadership of former Congress member Sushmita Dev, there could be political upheavals. Additionally, national parties are vying to align with the Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance or Tipra Motha, which could be a significant factor in the upcoming elections.
In Tripura, the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2016 is a crucial and contentious issue. The bill aims to amend the Citizenship Act of 1955 to grant citizenship to illegal migrants from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan who belong to six minority religious communities. While the ruling BJP supports the bill, the opposition Congress and TMC oppose it. Other significant challenges in Tripura include low per capita income relative to other states, insurgency, inadequate infrastructure, and a high unemployment rate. These issues could play a crucial role in the upcoming elections.
Meghalaya’s upcoming election features a five-party battle
The alliance between the BJP and the National People’s Party (NPP) has been experiencing significant discord. Previously, the BJP supported the NPP, led by Conrad Sangma, to form a government. However, there have been ongoing tensions between the two parties, which could have significant implications in the upcoming elections. Meghalaya has a history of political instability marked by frequent party switching by MLAs.
Currently, the Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA) government holds 33 seats, with 20 belonging to the National People’s Party (NPP), 8 to the United Democratic Party (UDP), 3 to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and 2 to the People’s Democratic Front (PDF). In the opposition, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has 8 seats, while 19 seats remain vacant.
Currently, the BJP has opted to contest the Meghalaya elections on its own as the party’s position on the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and related issues has created differences with its alliance partner. Given its limited presence in the state, the BJP is seeking to forge alliances with regional parties to form a government. The BJP-led central government has faced criticism for its policies on demonetization and the goods and services tax (GST), which has generated public discontent. The Congress hopes to capitalize on this dissatisfaction to its advantage. The Garo and Khasi divisions in Meghalaya have a significant impact on the state’s voting patterns. The majority of the population, approximately 75%, is Christian, and around 12% are Hindu. As a result, the Congress has traditionally held sway over the Shillong region, while the National People’s Party (NPP) has a strong presence in the Tura region. The BJP’s decision to contest the elections alone is a bold move, and it remains to be seen if the party can regain its foothold in the urban Shillong region. Additionally, Mukul Sangma’s departure from the Congress along with 11 other MLAs to the Trinamool Congress (TMC) earlier has also altered the political landscape in the state.
Nagaland’s demands for greater autonomy in border areas
In Nagaland, peace and security are the central concerns for the upcoming elections. The Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), which leads the ruling government, has been engaging in negotiations with several militant groups to secure a peace agreement. The outcome of these talks will be a crucial factor in the elections. The current coalition in power, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), comprises the NDPP, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Naga People’s Front (NPF), with Neiphiu Rio of the NDPP serving as the Chief Minister.
If the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) is partially lifted, it could improve the chances of the BJP in Nagaland, as seen in 2018 when the party won 12 seats. However, there have been demands from seven tribes to create a separate “Frontier Nagaland” with 16 districts, adding to the existing challenges. To address this issue, the central government recently held meetings with the Eastern Nagaland People’s Organization (ENPO) in search of a solution.
In Nagaland, the National People’s Party (NPP) is facing allegations of corruption, while the influence of the tribal groups is becoming more apparent. The tribal groups are pushing for a separate state, and this demand has gained momentum in recent times. The Rising People’s Party (RPP) is a newcomer to the political and electoral scene in Nagaland.
The Northeast region of India is in a precarious situation as the 2023 elections approach. For years, the central government has neglected this region, leading to growing frustration among its older political leaders. As we approach the 2024 general elections, the seven states in this region and Assam will play a significant role, accounting for a total of 25 Lok Sabha constituencies. The upcoming elections will be a crucial test for the BJP as they try to maintain their political stronghold in the region. (The author can be reached at dipaknewslive@gmail.com)
