GUWAHATI, March 17: Assam’s varied demography will be the deciding factor in the three-phased polls to 14 Lok Sabha seats, spread over four distinct regions, namely the Brahmaputra Valley, Barak Valley, hill districts and Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR).
The indigenous Assamese people, Hindu Bengalis, minorities including Assamese Muslims and Bengali-speaking immigrants, ethnic tribes and the tea tribe community will play key roles in different pockets during polling on April 19, 26 and May 7.
Polling for five constituencies of Dibrugarh, Jorhat, Kaziranga, Lakhimpur and Sonitpur, all in the Brahmaputra Valley, will be held in the first phase on April 19.
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In the first phase, the fates of Union minister Sarbananda Sonowal, Lok Sabha’s deputy leader of the opposition Gaurav Gogoi, BJP’s Rajya Sabha MP and party spokesperson Kamakhya Prasad Tasa, sitting BJP MPs Topon Gogoi and Pradan Baruah and Assam MLA and former minister Ranjit Dutta will be decided.
These constituencies have a mixed population of Assamese, comprising the politically important Tai-Ahom community, the tea tribes, earlier a Congress loyalist vote bloc that has shifted allegiance to the BJP since 2014, and tribal groups such as the Mising and Sonowal-Kachari, among others.
The BJP, with all the five constituencies in its kitty, has made deep inroads in the last decade and the opposition parties will have to put considerable efforts to make an impact.
The Brahmaputra Valley is again divided into the northern and southern banks with Lakhimpur and Sonitpur in the former and the remaining three in the latter.
The state is also divided into Upper, Central and Lower Assam divisions, with all constituencies going to polls in the first phase being in Upper Assam.
The delimitation exercise in the state last year christened the erstwhile Kaliabor parliamentary constituency, represented by Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi in the outgoing Parliament, as Kaziranga with Gogoi shifting to Jorhat this time.
BJP’s Tasa will take on former Congress MLA Roselina Tirkey, both belonging to the tea tribe community, in Kaziranga which according to the delimitation realignment has a sizeable population of tea tribe and pockets of Hindu Bengalis in some newly added assembly segments of the constituency.
In the commercial hub of Dibrugarh, the BJP has denied a ticket to its sitting MP and Union minister Rameswar Teli, pitting Sonowal against United Opposition Forum Assam (UOFA)’s candidate and Assam Jatiya Parishad president Lurinjyoti Gogoi.
In Jorhat, Gaurav Gogoi will contest against BJP’s sitting MP Topon Gogoi while in Sonitpur, Dutta will take on Congress state general secretary Prem Lal Ganju.
In Lakhimpur, the BJP has given a ticket to sitting MP Pradan Baruah while the opposition is yet to announce its candidate for the seat.
In the second phase on April 26, polling will be held in Diphu (ST), comprising three hill districts of Dima Hasao, Karbi Anglong and West Karbi Anglong, Darrang-Udalguri, a part of which is in BTR, two constituencies of Silchar (SC) and Karimganj in Barak Valley, besides Central Assam’s Nagaon constituency.
The prominent candidates in the second phase are sitting BJP MPs Dilip Saikia from Darrang-Udalguri, Kripanath Malla from Karimganj, state excise minister Parimal Suklabaidya from Silchar, and Congress sitting MP Pradyut Bordoloi, BJP’s Suresh Bora and AIUDF’s Dhing MLA Aminul Islam from Nagaon.
During the delimitation exercise, the Scheduled Caste tag was removed from Karimganj and accorded to Silchar, with both constituencies having a large population of Hindu Bengali voters, who have welcomed the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.
In Diphu (ST) seat, where the BJP has fielded first-timer Amarsing Tisso against its former MLA and now Congress candidate Joyram Engleng, Karbi and Dimasa tribes will play pivotal roles.
In Darrang-Udalguri, BJP’s Saikia will battle it out with former two-time Congress MP Madhab Rajbongshi with Bodo, Adivasi and Assamese voters to play deciding roles.
In the third and final phase on May 7, polling will be held in Central Assam’s prestigious Guwahati, Lower Assam’s Dhubri and Barpeta and BTR’s Kokrajhar constituencies.
In Guwahati, represented by BJP women MPs since 2009, the party has nominated its state vice president Bijuli Kalita Medhi, by replacing sitting MP Queen Ojha, and she will take on Congress spokesperson Mira Borthakur Goswami.
In minority-dominated Dhubri, AIUDF president Badruddin Ajmal will make a bid to retain the seat for the fourth consecutive term with former minister and Samaguri Congress MLA Rakibul Hussain and Asom Gana Parishad’s Zabed Islam expected to put up a good fight.
The assembly segments of Barpeta Lok Sabha constituency, which was earlier minority-dominated, have been reworked during the delimitation exercise causing realignment of demography and is expected to witness an interesting contest with the Congress denying seat to its sitting MP Abdul Khaleque, who subsequently resigned from the party.
The Congress has given the seat to Assam Pradesh Seva Dal president Deep Bayan while the NDA has left it for AGP with its former minister Phanibhushan Choudhury to contest the seat, while the CPI(M), a constituent of the UOFA, announced that its Sorbhog MLA Manoranjan Kalita will also contest from the seat.
The Kokrajhar (ST) constituency in the BTR is also set to witness an interesting contest with NDA partner United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL)’s candidate Joyanta Basumatary pitted against Congress’ Garjan Mushahary.
In the outgoing Parliament, the BJP held nine seats, the Congress three, and the AIUDF one. There is also an Independent MP. (PTI)
