The fall of Assad-regime in Syria has given birth to antagonisms amongst its earlier allies like Iran, Turkey, and Russia. On the other hand, the leverage gained by Israel, ostensibly on American support, does not augur well for the region. The striking developments in Syria over the 13 days preceding the fleeing of the Syrian President to Russia have transfixed the world. Thousands are already trying to make their way back to Syria after years in exile.
It turns out the answer to the refugee crisis that sent millions of Syrians into neighbouring countries and Europe may simply be the removal of a dictator. Though in reality during recent months, more countries were trying to normalise ties with Assad. Italy even sent an ambassador back to Damascus. However, the Syrian situation and a decrease of Iran’s influence in Syria may have profound implications for the middle east’s geopolitical landscape, power dynamics, and strategic alignments.
Regional actors including Iran, Turkey, and the Persian Gulf states may compete to find a toehold during the transitional period in Syria to realign their efforts to safeguard their regional interests. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, may through calculated engagement with the diverse Syrian political factions and reconstruction efforts may attempt to gain leverage by trying to counter Turkish and Iranian aspirations.Moreover, the turmoil in Syria could also exacerbate sectarian tensions as Sunni Arab states may seek to prevent Iran from regaining influence, while various militant groups, including the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) could try to rebuild their operational presence in the region.
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The Syrian conflict is now proving to be the Achilles heel of the Iranian axis. An ally of the Islamic Republic since its founding in 1979, the Assad regime called on Tehran to help quash the uprising. Hezbollah deployed thousands of men in Syria, transforming from a Lebanese political party and militant group into an Iranian expeditionary force. But Hezbollah’s fighting in the open in Syria for a decade exposed it to Israeli surveillance.
This helped Israel’s recent military campaign, which decimated the group’s leadership and destroyed much of its capabilities. Iran’s hubris grew as it added another Arab capital under its control. But helping Damascus also stretched Tehran’s capabilities, siphoned off resources and exposed its vulnerabilities Meanwhile, Israel may take more assertive positions against Iran-affiliated organisations in the region, including Lebanese resistance groups active in Syria, with the aim to prevent Tehran from reconstituting its sphere of influence in Israel’s north. The list of challenges for Syria is long, including deep apprehensions about rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) vision for the future, the possibility of violent retributions after five decades of authoritarian rule and the danger of a resurgence of Isis.
Syrians do not need to be reminded of this, instead an end to foreign meddling in the country is the need of the hour, but no regional player is going to exercise constraint. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has accused the United States, Israel, and Turkey of trying to overthrow the Assad’s government in Syria. He claims this is part of a joint “American-Zionist” plan, with Turkey also involved. These developments also highlight the complex geopolitical situation of the region. He further stressed the importance of helping Syria in this challenging time.
The situation remains tense as these accusations unfold. Despite years of collaboration – particularly on Turkey’s economic support to circumvent international sanctions on Iran – relations between Iran and Turkey appear to be tattering.Turkey has long provided support for anti-Assad rebel groups, including the HTS which led the march to Damascus. However, Turkey’s primary interest in Syria has been to create a buffer zone and a bridgehead to fight Kurdish groups in northern Syria.
