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Friday, May 20, 2022

Russia-Ukraine War: Causes, Challenges And Effects

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By: Nripendra Abhishek Nrip

If we look at history, till date war has not solved any problem. Today the world may be writing new stories of development, but countries like Russia, China still remain embroiled in war. The result of this is the Russia-Ukraine War, which has created a new crisis on humanity.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has formally announced military action. Simultaneously, Russian President Putin has vowed to retaliate against those who interfere in the Russian operation against Ukraine. One aspect is that a helpless and poor child, is about to fall prey to a dreaded bear but a guard rides on a horse to stop the bear. The helpless child is Ukraine, the dreaded bear Russia and the US-led West of Mounted Guard.

The ultimate result of militant nationalism is war. Why Ukraine, if the world continues on this path, then more countries will be pushed into war. The manner in which Russia has shown hostility to Ukraine is an ominous sign for world peace. Russia recognized the separatist regions of eastern Ukraine – Donetsk and Luhansk – as independent regions before attacking Ukraine, after which the prospects of war were visible and eventually war started.

Ever since Ukraine broke away from the Soviet Union, both Russia and the West have constantly struggled to keep the balance of power in the region in their favour. For the US and the European Union, Ukraine serves as an important buffer zone between Russia and the West.

This is the reason why Ukraine is getting crushed in the fight for supremacy of two countries. The US and the European Union have been trying to keep Ukraine out of Russian control as tensions with Russia escalate. This is not the case only in Russia and Europe. Sitting from behind in this, China is also in its watch. Because through Russia, China wanted to serve its interests from America. Seeing the way China continues to engage in border disputes with Taiwan and India, China will also get encouragement and that is what it wants.

When it comes to war, Ukraine-Russia will not be the only issue. If the world continues to sit on its hands like this, then the day is not far when China expands on Taiwan or beyond and spreads to India and turns into war. It remains a challenge for India as well because the US on which we are preparing to fight China, we cannot believe it after seeing the desperation of America after Ukraine war.

Now the situation has become dire.

In such a situation, America and European countries are busy playing the game of sanctions. America itself seems to be battered after being charred in Afghanistan. If you look properly, Ukraine has been forced to die by suffocation by all countries pushing it into war. Ukraine is being ruined in front of the whole world and all the countries are sitting and watching the spectacle. The US has categorically refused to send its troops to Ukraine and says that it can only send troops to NATO member countries.

In such a situation, what will be the fate of Ukraine; it is hidden in the womb of time.

Who will be the supremo of the world in the coming days? Its decision will also decide this war. Because on the one hand, where Russia wants to bring back the lost prestige again, China is playing a trick on Russia’s shoulder to become the world’s supreme power. The way China is issuing statements in this war. Indirect collusion with Russia can be seen from him. If this happens then it is not a good sign for world peace.

The United Nations Organization was established for world peace, in which only meetings have been held, but in itself it proves to be a failed institution when it is needed for peacekeeping. With the expansion of the United Nations, it will also need to be reformed; otherwise there will come a time when the United Nations will suffocate.

Ukraine is gradually understanding the attitude of America and the United Nations and this is the reason why Ukraine is reaching out to India for its help.

India’s relations with Russia are better than Ukraine and America. If India can bring both the countries together for talks, then India can establish its dominance on the world stage. However, till now India has adopted the policy of staying neutral by not supporting any one side. If this menace is not stopped here, then the spark of this fire will start smouldering in other countries also.

If we look at the root of the Russia-Ukraine war, we find that Russia has blamed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for the current crisis and considers the US-led coalition a potential threat to Russia. It also alleges that Ukraine had inherited Russia’s historical lands and was used by the West to harass Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. Russia wants Western countries to guarantee that NATO will not allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join as members.

If we go into the bottom of the history of this incident, then we will see. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, NATO decided to include new members from Central and Eastern Europe. Russia signed a treaty with NATO in 1997, partly a pact to halt its expansion. The treaty did not explicitly restrict the expansion of NATO, but NATO agreed not to deploy troops and nuclear weapons in the territory of the new member states.

Thereafter, NATO expanded eastward to include mostly former members of the Warsaw Pact. In 2014, a regime change was carried out in Ukraine in support of the West and the corrupt President of Ukraine was ousted from power. The result of that action is that Crimea is now part of Russia and rebels occupy parts of eastern Ukraine.

The movement for secession from Ukraine also emerged in the Donbass region after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014. The Donetsk and Luhansk regions come under the Donbass. This area is full of abundant minerals. One-third of the population in this region is Russian, who want to create a separate nation from Ukraine on the basis of linguistic basis. These Russian-speaking people immigrated to the area when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union. The ancestors of all these were labourers working in the mines of the Donbass region. Russia has been indirectly supporting these separatists.

But here the shelling has intensified since October 2021, when Russia started deploying troops along the borders with Ukraine. Now Russia has recognized Donetsk and Luhansk as independent regions. Russia’s argument is that it is protecting its people, and on the basis of this sophistication, Putin has made a concoction of war.

It can be understood from history that the current tension is not instant, but it is a long-running crisis that was waiting for the right circumstances to take a formidable form. For Russia, this crisis is not about Ukraine, but about renegotiating existing security arrangements in Europe, which were affected by the expansion of NATO, keeping in mind the interests of Russia.

It is clear that Moscow is not ready to have an endless discussion on this matter.

On the other hand the West, which is politically motivated by the ideal of the right of the people to self-determination, sees the demands of Russia as clearly unacceptable. This incompatibility of two different ideologies seems to create a great difficulty.

The impact of the Russo-Ukraine war is being seen on India as well as on the world. Its effect is clearly visible on crude oil prices. Russia accounts for about 10 percent of global oil production. The price of oil has crossed $ 100 per barrel. The war will affect the work of nuclear energy, for which India is helping Ukraine. If we talk about trade, then in 2020 the trade between the two countries was $2.69 billion. In this, India imported $ 1.97 billion from Ukraine. At the same time, India exported $ 721.54 million to Ukraine.

India’s trade with Ukraine would be in jeopardy in the event of a war. Apart from all this, the effect of war can also be on the border of India. China can increase its activities on the border. If we talk about Ukraine, then more than 20 thousand people and students of India are living in different parts of there. The safety of these people in the event of war is an important issue.

This also poses a big challenge for India.

India has adopted the policy of being neutral for this till now. India did not join the condemnation of Russia’s intervention in Crimea by Western powers and kept its neutral stand on the issue. In November 2020, India supported Russia by voting against a resolution sponsored by Ukraine at the United Nations that condemned alleged human rights violations in Crimea.

Recently, India also suggested in the UN Security Council that “quiet and constructive diplomacy” is the need of the hour and that any steps that escalate tensions should be avoided.

India is a sovereign nation and in the world we have been known for super diplomacy.

In this situation, non-alignment would be the better solution for India, with which we can move forward. But staying non-aligned is the biggest challenge in the present era. Now look ahead, what happens? (The author is a researcher)

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The Hills Timeshttps://thehillstimes.in/
The Hills Times, a largely circulated English daily published from Diphu and printed in Guwahati, having vast readership in hills districts of Assam, and neighbouring Nagaland, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur
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