Manipur’s recent history has been marked by deep ethnic tensions between the Meiteis and the Kuki-Zo tribal communities, with conflict erupting on May 3, 2023, over the issue of tribal status for the majority Meitei community. Though violence has subsided in recent weeks, the situation remains precarious, and the path to peace is far from assured. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent statement in the Rajya Sabha, where he suggested that “hope for peace” is visible in Manipur, has been met with scepticism from the Opposition and many on the ground. The visible absence of a functioning civil administration and the continued reliance on extraordinary security measures underscore the fragility of the current calm. Thousands of displaced people still languish in relief camps, unable to return to their homes due to fears for their safety.

Complicating matters further is the political landscape in Manipur. Chief Minister N Biren Singh, once a strong figure, now finds himself in a weakened position. The BJP’s central leadership, while still backing him, seems to be doing so more out of necessity than conviction. Singh’s political fortunes have been tied to the influence of Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, a key player in the BJP’s North-East strategy. However, the recent loss of both of Manipur’s Lok Sabha seats to the Congress indicates a growing discontent with the state’s leadership. Despite this, Singh remains indispensable due to the lack of a viable alternative, a situation that places him in a precarious position within his party. At the national level, Union Home Minister Amit Shah appears to be increasingly involved in managing Manipur’s affairs, further limiting Singh’s authority. The political dynamics within the state are also complicated by the ongoing issues with Myanmar, whose internal instability continues to exacerbate cross-border tensions and illegal migration into Manipur. The Suspension of Operation (SoO) agreement, originally signed in 2008 between the government and 25 armed Kuki groups, was intended to facilitate peace and dialogue. However, the agreement has failed to achieve its objectives, and the state government, with the backing of the Manipur State Assembly, has been pushing for its termination. The decision to withdraw from the SoO agreement with two insurgent groups in March 2023, citing their involvement in illegal activities, marked a significant escalation in the state’s approach to handling the conflict.

- Advertisement -

Recent developments, including the visit of Chief of the Army Staff General Upendra Dwivedi to Manipur, have fuelled speculation that the central government may be considering the state’s demands. General Dwivedi’s discussions with the chief minister, coupled with his planned (though weather-impacted) visits to conflict-affected areas, suggest that the Centre is taking these demands seriously. However, the potential termination of the SoO agreement raises concerns about the resurgence of violence, particularly from the insurgent groups that were part of the accord. If the SoO is indeed terminated, it may necessitate a renewed military presence in the region, further complicating the situation. While Chief Minister Singh has expressed optimism that the Centre will act on his demands, the reality is that any move to end the SoO will need to be carefully managed to avoid reigniting conflict. While the reduction in violence is a positive sign, it is far too early to declare peace in Manipur.