In a strategic move aimed at the upcoming general elections in 2024, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has replaced four state unit presidents, namely in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Punjab. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with union home minister Amit Shah, orchestrated this organisational reshuffle, with party president JP Nadda providing his support. The intent behind these changes is clear – to consolidate power, engineer defections, and weaken opposition parties. The BJP’s authority over both the party and the central government is widely known, with Modi’s unparalleled control. Presently, Modi and Shah are actively devising plans to destabilise opposition parties, having already targeted the Nationalist Congress Party led by Sharad Pawar, and potentially setting their sights on Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and even Lalu Yadav’s RJD. There are indications that the Congress government in Karnataka may also be under the Modi-Shah crosshairs. Late evening clandestine meetings between the two leaders have raised concerns among opposition parties. The past decade has witnessed central investigating agencies unearthing dirt on opposition leaders, with many now facing arrests and engineered defections.
However, beneath the apparent bravado and wrecking ball strategy lies the reality of double anti-incumbency and the decay of an authoritarian and failing leadership. The BJP’s top echelons are no longer confident about their prospects in assembly and general elections. The recent defeat in the Karnataka assembly election confirmed that things have gone awry. The party is now wavering between Hindutva and its own brand of hybrid secularism, which appears inauthentic and akin to a tin-pot dictator of a banana republic. The watershed moment of the Karnataka assembly election was a litmus test for the BJP. Their greatest fear now lies in suffering defeats in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Madhya Pradesh will be fought on a blatantly Hindutva platform, while Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan pose challenging electoral terrain. Even in these states, Modi’s attempts to present himself as an all-inclusive secular leader, in the mold of Mahatma Gandhi, have complicated matters. He walks a tightrope between a roiling Hindutva river below and an unwavering and hostile secular sky above. The recent “organisational restructuring of regional units” is a clear indication that the BJP is gearing up for the 2024 general elections, with the implicit understanding that Narendra Modi will secure a third term as Prime Minister.
Narendra Modi’s re-election as Prime Minister for a third term is the BJP’s paramount objective, entrusted to leaders at all levels of the party. The restructuring of state units is an integral part of this assignment. While figures like Bandi Sanjay may possess strong grassroots support, their inability to foster healthy relationships with their peers often hampers progress. Each of the newly appointed state presidents brings their own strengths to the table, including Etela Rajender, an OBC leader, who will head the election management committee in Telangana. Accommodating high-profile defectors who can win Lok Sabha seats for Modi is crucial. Figures like Praful Patel and Bandi Sanjay Kumar are more likely to emerge victorious than ordinary BJP politicians. The next step in this reorganisation is a cabinet reshuffle, further solidifying the party’s strategy. Rumors suggest that Malayalam superstar Suresh Gopi’s name is being considered for a role. The BJP is leaving no stone unturned in its pursuit of victory in 2024, but the road ahead is fraught with challenges and uncertainties.
