By: Dipak Kurmi
The BJP’s narrative in Kerala is unfolding with significant momentum. Prime Minister Narendra Modi not only inaugurated the party’s 2024 re-election campaign in the state but also paid two more visits within a span of two months. For the BJP, the symbolic significance of making inroads into Kerala, a bastion of pluralism, cannot be overstated.
The visual impact of the Prime Minister’s recent trip to Thiruvananthapuram was truly impeccable. During the visit, he unveiled the identities of the four chosen Indian astronauts for the Gaganyaan mission. Notably, among them was Kerala’s pride, Group Captain Prashanth B Nair. The astronaut’s sudden rise to fame was magnified when it was disclosed a few hours later that he is married to the renowned Malayalam film star Lena.
Related Posts:
In the meantime, Shashi Tharoor, the Congress MP hailing from the region, asserted that the BJP would not secure a single seat in Kerala. According to him, the party’s political approach simply doesn’t resonate with the people of the state. Kerala has consistently proven to be an inhospitable terrain for the BJP, despite the longstanding history and extensive influence of the RSS in the region. Even though Mission 400-plus urges the party to broaden its reach, almost any other state in the country appears to be a more promising prospect.
However, the landscape has undergone a transformation since 2019, and the BJP perceives a chance to break the dry spell. What has changed? There is now a noticeable erosion of trust between the two minority communities in Kerala, traditionally considered strongholds by the Congress. In 2021, when Bishop Mar Joseph Kallarangatt of the Syro-Malabar Catholic church cautioned his congregation about ‘Love jihad’ and ‘Narcotics jihad,’ he garnered support within the community.
However, this development raised concerns within the Congress-led United Democratic Front. The situation presented a dilemma as, on one side, the Syro-Malabar church holds significant influence as the largest among the predominant Christian denominations. On the flip side, the Indian Union Muslim League remains a crucial ally within the Congress front. Faced with this delicate balance, the party found itself compelled to criticize the leaders of the church.
The Congress faced a prior setback when the Kerala Congress (M), supported by the Christian community, parted ways with the UDF and aligned with the CPM-led Left Democratic Front. This strategic move significantly aided the LDF in penetrating strongholds traditionally dominated by Christians within the UDF during the subsequent assembly elections.
The LDF’s growing advantage can also be attributed to the perception that the IUML wielded disproportionate influence within the UDF. The Congress’ reliance on the Muslim vote has led to an assertive IUML, to the extent that it has requested the Congress to concede an additional seat in the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections. However, this move could potentially alienate the Congress’ Christian voter base.
The actions of the Popular Front of India (PFI), a Muslim organization with purported terrorist connections, have exacerbated the situation. Instances of severe violence perpetrated by PFI activists, including the disfigurement of a professor’s hand over accusations of blasphemy, have instilled a sense of fear in the region.
Therefore, the BJP is actively engaging with the Christian communities in Kerala, employing a strategy that has proven successful in the Northeast and Goa. In the Northeast, out of the 25 seats, the BJP currently commands 18. Notably, in the 2022 Goa assembly elections, one-third of all BJP candidates were Catholics. In Christian-majority Nagaland, the BJP formed an alliance with the NDPP and secured victory in 12 out of the 20 contested seats. The term ‘Chrisanghi,’ previously derogatory for Christian supporters of the BJP, is gradually gaining acceptance. While it’s not suggested that the BJP will secure a substantial portion of the Christian vote, given the internal differences among denominations, it might make inroads particularly among the affluent elite.
The second facet of the BJP’s strategy came to light during the Prime Minister’s rally in Thrissur last month. The event, centered around ‘stree-shakti’ (women empowerment), drew a substantial number of women attendees. Renowned figures like former athlete P T Usha and actor Shobana provided the necessary star appeal. Modi highlighted his women-centric initiatives to the women of Kerala, addressing them as ‘mothers and sisters.’ These initiatives ranged from offering sanitary napkins at a nominal cost to opening up Sainik Schools for girls. In a state where the gender literacy gap is already minimal, women emerge as a distinct and influential constituency.
Beyond courting women and celebrities, the BJP’s campaign prominently showcases the theme of ‘vikas’ (development). Positioning itself as the sole party equipped with a comprehensive plan for the nation’s and the state’s progress, the BJP has been emphasizing its commitment to development. In pursuit of this objective, Modi inaugurated three infrastructure projects amounting to Rs 4,000 crore in Kochi last month, coupled with the assurance of ‘Modi’s guarantee.’ Furthermore, he underscored his government’s initiatives specifically tailored for the welfare of fishermen.
Prudently, the BJP has strategically chosen to concentrate its efforts on particular constituencies. The objective is not merely to accumulate numbers but to secure a symbolic breakthrough. The spotlight is on four specific constituencies, two of which the Prime Minister has already visited: Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram. In the 2019 elections, the renowned actor and BJP candidate, Suresh Gopi, clinched the third position in Thrissur but significantly elevated the BJP’s vote share from 11% to 28%. Meanwhile, in Thiruvananthapuram, the BJP secured the second position with a notable 31% vote share.
Providing a boost to the BJP’s campaign in the state is the gradual decline of the Congress, notably marked after its setback in the 2023 assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. The party has witnessed prominent defections, with figures like Anil Antony, the son of the staunch Gandhi loyalist A K Antony, contributing to the perception that the Congress is losing momentum. Subsequently, news surfaced that the BJP emerged victorious in the Rajya Sabha elections, casting a shadow over the Congress and its coalition partner, the Samajwadi Party.
Recognizing the impracticality of relying on ideological debates in Kerala, the BJP has adopted a region-specific approach. This entails concentrating efforts on women and youth, emphasizing development, and engaging with specific Christian denominations. (The writer is a journalist and commentator based in Guwahati, can be reached at dipaknewslive@gmail.com)
