By: Dipak Kurmi
The electoral battlefield has taken shape after the Chief Election Commissioner unveiled the schedule for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections last week. The democratic exercise will commence in April, unfolding over several phases, before culminating on June 4 when the verdict of the electorate will be revealed. With the contours of the electoral contest now etched in stone, the political arena is abuzz with anticipation and strategizing as parties gear up to woo voters across the nation’s diverse landscape.
The upcoming general elections in India are shaping up to be a high-stakes political showdown. On one side stands the formidable coalition of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies, forming the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seeking an unprecedented third consecutive term, has positioned the BJP as the frontrunner, capitalizing on its dominant position and the relative disarray among the opposition ranks. On the other hand, a diverse array of opposition parties has coalesced under the banner of the INDIA (Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance) bloc, determined to mount a concerted challenge to the BJP’s hegemony. This motley alliance encompasses a spectrum of ideologies and regional powerhouses, each vying for a share of the political pie. As the campaign season intensifies, the air is thick with allegations of defections, secret pacts, and strategic maneuvering. Both sides are engaged in intricate negotiations, forging alliances and fielding candidates in a bid to secure a decisive mandate from the electorate. While the BJP’s well-oiled election machinery and Modi’s personal appeal have afforded them a head start, the opposition remains undeterred, hoping to capitalize on any missteps or disenchantment among voters. The stage is set for a hard-fought battle, where the outcome will shape the nation’s trajectory for the next five years and beyond.
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Forging a united front, 26 political outfits have coalesced under the banner of INDIA, a pre-poll alliance determined to unseat the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming electoral contest. Undeterred by successive setbacks in 2014 and 2019, which tarnished its reputation, this opposition coalition has resolved to field a singular candidate against the BJP’s nominees, underscoring their unwavering commitment to reclaiming the nation’s mandate. However, beyond this strategic maneuvering, the INDIA coalition faces the daunting challenge of resonating with the electorate, particularly the influential demographic of millennials, whose support could prove pivotal in shaping the nation’s political landscape.
The Congress party, once a formidable force in Indian politics, has seen a steady decline in its fortunes over the past few decades. Founded in 1885, the party has a storied history of championing the cause of the underprivileged sections of society, including Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, Other Backward Classes, and the Muslim community. However, since the 1980s, the party’s influence has been challenged by the rise of regional political outfits, each catering to specific geographic and demographic constituencies. Today, the Congress party finds itself grappling with a leadership crisis, struggling to regain its former glory and relevance in the country’s political landscape. The party that once commanded a formidable presence across the nation now finds itself reduced to a mere shadow of its former self, searching for a way to reinvent itself and reclaim its position as a dominant force in Indian politics.
In the wake of its setbacks in the 2014 and 2019 elections, the Congress party now asserts its dedication to the cause of social justice and the upliftment of India’s underprivileged segments, comprising the impoverished, the oppressed, the Dalits, the farming community, the youth, and women. This renewed commitment manifests itself through the party’s five-pronged pledge, encompassing Yuva Nyay (justice for the youth), Bhagidaari Nyay (participatory justice), Naari Nyay (justice for women), Kisan Nyay (justice for farmers), and Shramik Nyay (justice for workers).
The Opposition’s primary strategy revolves around uniting voters disgruntled with the BJP’s rule and enticing them with alluring promises. This approach proved fruitful for the Congress party in the recent assembly elections held in Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana, where they emerged victorious. The Congress party is banking on the anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP, amplified by the latter’s efforts to placate the electorate through subsidies and populist schemes. Simultaneously, they are pinning their hopes on Rahul Gandhi’s much-publicized Bharat Jodo Yatras, which were orchestrated to establish a connection with the masses and garner grassroots support.
To capture the attention and support of the younger electorate, whose participation plays a pivotal role in determining electoral outcomes, it is imperative for Congress to prioritize and address concerns that resonate deeply with this demographic. Matters of pressing socioeconomic significance, such as rising inflationary pressures, unemployment rates, and societal tensions, must be placed at the forefront of their agenda. Failure to do so would risk alienating a substantial portion of the voting populace, thereby jeopardizing their prospects for success. To effectively engage and sway these voters, Congress must articulate and champion an alternative, compelling strategy that speaks directly to their aspirations and addresses their most pressing concerns.
Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strong national presence, several influential chief ministers from regional parties wield significant authority within their respective states. These locally dominant leaders pose a formidable challenge for Modi’s party in those regions, making it an uphill battle to gain traction and support. The prime minister faces stiff competition from these entrenched chief ministers, whose solid grip on power and popularity among their constituents could prove to be a hurdle for Modi’s agenda and influence in those states.
The 2019 general elections witnessed the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies securing a mere 45 per cent of the total votes cast. This left a substantial 55 per cent of the electorate’s mandate up for grabs, presenting an opportunity for the opposition bloc, now known as the INDIA coalition, to capitalize on. Despite the absence of a national figure with the same level of popularity as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the coalition boasts several influential regional leaders capable of swaying voters within their respective strongholds. This phenomenon holds particularly true in states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh. However, the INDIA coalition faces a formidable challenge in projecting a single, unified leadership figure as a counterweight to Modi. An apparent clash of egos among the coalition partners has made it arduous to reach a consensus on a singular candidate to rally behind. This internal discord poses a significant hurdle for the opposition bloc as it strives to present a cohesive and formidable front against the incumbent Prime Minister and his party.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) possesses a formidable organizational structure, backed by significant financial resources and political clout. On the other hand, the opposition parties appear to lack a cohesive and compelling narrative, with the exception of their stated commitment to upholding the Constitution and preserving democratic values. However, the concerns of the electorate are often more deeply rooted in meeting their fundamental needs, such as access to food, clothing, and shelter. For instance, Sonia Gandhi’s “Aam Admi” (common person) slogan during the 2004 elections struck a chord with the masses. The lower-income segments of society, living from paycheck to paycheck, may find it challenging to relate to abstract political concepts and ideologies. Their immediate priorities revolve around securing their basic necessities and improving their economic well-being.
Trapped in the sepia-tinted memories of its illustrious heritage, the Congress Party seems reluctant to confront the evolving political landscape. As the second-largest force, it instinctively lays claim to the mantle of leading any opposition coalition. However, the steady exodus of its leaders to the BJP’s fold has served as a demoralizing force, chipping away at its foundations. The opposition desperately needs a robust counter-narrative to the BJP’s masterful propaganda machinery and its adept manipulation of religious sentiments. Since its humble beginnings in 1980, the BJP has transformed into a political juggernaut, cementing its status as India’s preeminent party. Its formidable organizational strength and deep financial reserves have enabled it to cast a long shadow across the nation’s political landscape.
The ruling party is banking on the popularity and accomplishments of the Prime Minister to galvanize voter support. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is viewed as having an edge in the upcoming elections, with Narendra Modi being their talismanic figure. His advocates laud him as a man of action, pointing to initiatives like the Triple Talaq law, the Citizenship Amendment Act, the revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, and the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya. The BJP’s campaign highlights the government’s achievements over the past decade, as well as various welfare schemes, in a bid to attract voters. The continuity has enabled Modi to pursue his agenda effectively. Over the past ten years, he has gained international recognition and fortified India’s position on the global stage, exciting his supporters. The party hopes that Modi’s image as a doer, coupled with the government’s track record and welfare initiatives, will resonate with the electorate and propel them to victory.
Critics argue that the ruling administration led by Prime Minister Modi has employed investigative agencies as tools to persecute and harass political opponents. Additionally, they contend that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has adopted tactics to actively lure legislators and leaders from other parties, providing them with incentives to defect and join the saffron ranks. This strategy has enabled the BJP to assimilate numerous second-tier leaders who perceived better opportunities within the party’s fold.
As the 2024 elections draw near, the political landscape is poised to witness an intensified battle of narratives, with both sides leaving no stone unturned in their efforts to discredit their opponents. This high-stakes contest will be pivotal in shaping the future trajectory of the Opposition and the assertive BJP. Prime Minister Modi’s strategic advantage has been the fragmentation within the Opposition ranks. As long as this disunity persists, Modi’s position remains formidable. For the Opposition to gain ground or even emerge victorious, a resolute commitment to unity must become their unwavering mantra. Only through a cohesive front can they hope to counter the BJP’s dominance. (The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
