By: Dipak Kurmi
Jammu and Kashmir will hold Assembly elections from September 18 to October 1, marking the first time voters will elect 90 legislators since the abrogation of Article 370 and the state’s bifurcation in August 2019. The prolonged delay in conducting these elections has been a point of contention for years, but a recent directive from the Supreme Court played a pivotal role in establishing the timeline. With the announcement now made, political parties across the spectrum have expressed their support. Kashmir has long been a flashpoint in the conflict between India and Pakistan, with both nations claiming the region while controlling only parts of it. Pakistan has taken the issue to the international stage, including the United Nations. Modi’s 2019 decision to split the state sparked mixed reactions domestically and internationally.
The revocation of Article 370 resulted in significant changes for Kashmir, including the loss of its unique flag, criminal code, and constitutional protections. Government job opportunities for locals have diminished, with positions now open to non-residents. Despite these challenges, the state has experienced both positive and negative developments. Prime Minister Modi’s initiatives have driven progress, and increasing investment interest from Gulf countries suggests a hopeful future for the region. According to the Ministry of Home Affairs, security force casualties have decreased from 80 in 2019 to 33 in 2023, and civilian deaths have fallen from 44 in 2019 to 12 in 2023. The last Assembly elections were held in 2014, and the high voter turnout in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls has paved the way for these upcoming Assembly elections.
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Kashmir witnessed a landmark voter turnout of 58.46% in the recent parliamentary elections, reflecting a significant 30-point increase from the 2019 general elections. Following the 2019 revocation of Article 370 and the state’s bifurcation, the government completed a delimitation exercise, expanding the number of assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir from 87 to 114 as of 2022, including 24 reserved for Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). This adjustment could alter the balance of power and affect political strategies in the forthcoming elections. The BJP has argued that the abolition of Article 370 and its subsequent policies have led to substantial development in the region. The recent Lok Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir marked a notable triumph for Indian democracy, with the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) experiencing a resurgence in the 2024 polls.
The election provided an opportunity for the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to reinvigorate their membership and highlight longstanding issues. While the Congress failed to win any seats, the NC achieved a notable victory by securing two out of three available seats and posed a strong challenge for the remaining seat.
Despite the region’s troubled history with terrorism and accusations of election rigging, the recent elections were broadly praised for their fairness and transparency. The forthcoming election will be a crucial test of the central government’s efforts to more fully integrate Jammu and Kashmir into the Indian Union following the revocation of the region’s special status under Article 370.
The upcoming assembly elections will also be a significant challenge for the Election Commission to ensure a violence-free process. Political parties have begun their preparations, focusing on campaign strategies, forging alliances, and selecting candidates. The People’s Conference, Congress, Peoples Democratic Party, and National Conference have all convened to strategize for the elections and coordinate their efforts.
The People’s Conference, Congress, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and National Conference have each held meetings to strategize for the upcoming assembly elections. Should the elections proceed as planned, the primary contest in the Valley is expected to be between the NC and PDP. Additionally, the polarization and separatist rhetoric that emerged during the Lok Sabha elections are likely to intensify and reach their peak during the assembly elections.
The PDP leader, Mehbooba Mufti’s daughter, expressed sentiments similar to those of other party leaders. Additionally, various political parties, including the Congress, BJP, CPI(M), and the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), all welcomed the Election Commission’s announcement.
In the 2014 Jammu and Kashmir elections, no single party secured a majority, resulting in the imposition of Governor’s Rule for 49 days. This period ended when Mehbooba Mufti of the PDP was appointed chief minister with support from the BJP. In 2018, the BJP withdrew from the coalition, leading to a return of Governor’s Rule. The assembly was dissolved in November 2018, and President’s Rule was implemented in December 2018. Since then, the state has remained under Governor’s Rule.
The government faces a crucial decision on whether to intervene in the Kashmir Valley to tackle soft separatism or to consider a reorganization plan before the elections. During the parliamentary elections, the Congress and the National Conference (NC) formed an alliance, with the NC contesting three seats in Kashmir and the Congress focusing on Jammu and Udhampur. The PDP, which is part of the INDIA Alliance, was not included in this arrangement and contested three seats in Kashmir against the NC. As for the upcoming Assembly polls, the situation remains unclear. There is speculation that the Congress and NC might join forces, although Omar Abdullah has indicated that forming an alliance with the PDP could be challenging due to their electoral rivalry in the parliamentary elections. For regional parties to strengthen their position, unity is essential, and collaboration with the INDIA Bloc is necessary. The Kashmir elections are highly significant and will be closely watched as the country anticipates the emergence of a popular government after a decade. (The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
