World Population Prospects 2022 has revealed that India ran faster in the population race to become the largest populated country in the world in 2023, four years ahead than estimated in 2019, bringing unprecedented challenges which need to be converted into a demographic advantage with planning and action at war footing, or else will land into perilous conditions. The report by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs has been produced following a major upgrade of the entire process of estimates which included for the first time estimates and projections by single year of age and by one-year time interval – the so-called “1×1” data configuration instead of the “5×5” layout employed previously. It was done to respond to the growing demand for annual population data to assess progress in implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The data imply that the world in general and India, in particular, will be in greater need to respond to this new data that far exceeds all earlier estimates. Now November 15, 2022, is predicted to be the day that the global population reaches 8 billion, 8.5 billion in 2030, and 9.7 billion in 2050, before reaching a peak of around 10.4 billion in the 2080s to remain at that level until 2100. The present Covid, Conflict, and Climate Crises that are jeopardizing global goals and creating new crises of food, fuel, and finance are most likely to be exacerbated by the burden of the population. The world is already moving backward on eliminating hunger and malnutrition, and the prospect of India to be housing the largest number of poor demands urgent attention. In 2022, the two most populous regions were both in Asia: Eastern and South-Eastern Asia with 2.3 billion people and Central and Southern Asia with 2.1 billion. China and India, with more than 1.4 billion each, accounted for most of the population in these two regions. India is in an unenviable position since it accounts for only 2.4 percent of the total world surface area while housing over 17.7 percent population. The country will need to cater to the needs of the largest number of people in the world from the next year itself.
India’s becoming the largest populated country will mean the greatest additional pressures on the resources of the country and pose challenges to the achievement of the sustainable development goals (SDGs). It should be noted that India’s SDG preparedness ranking continues to decline. The challenges to feed, educate, and provide medication to the largest number of people in the world would increase. However, the share of the population of working ages is going to increase thanks to the reduction in fertility. Though with the rise in life expectancy at birth, the population of elderly persons would also rise to put pressure on younger people for their care, it would also shift in the age distribution that would provide a time-bound opportunity for accelerated economic growth known as the “demographic dividend”. India should prepare to meet the needs of a growing number of children and young people and should invest in human capital by ensuring access to healthcare and quality education at all ages and opportunities for productive employment. Modi’s government must act fast and plan afresh in the light of the new yearly population data to respond to crises and cater to the needs in real-time.
