The release of the Bihar Caste Census Report has ignited a fresh wave of political debate in India, with significant implications for both the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition, particularly the Indian National Congress. The repercussions of this census go beyond mere statistics; they have the potential to reshape the political landscape leading up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi wasted no time in responding to the release of the report. Speaking at a rally in Madhya Pradesh on October 3, 2023, he criticized the opposition for their perceived failure in delivering development and accused them of exploiting the emotions of the poor. Though he did not explicitly mention the census, his remarks unmistakably targeted both the survey and opposition parties, condemning any attempts to divide the nation along caste lines as a “sin.” In contrast, Rahul Gandhi, the Congress leader, had already expressed his support for a national caste census just days before the Bihar report’s release. Following the report, he reiterated his demand, emphasizing the importance of this data for social empowerment programs and achieving social justice.
The political impact of this census cannot be overstated, especially in the Hindi heartland and North India, where the BJP draws its political strength. States like Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand are crucial battlegrounds. The BJP’s longstanding opposition to the caste census contrasts with the opposition’s demand for it, aiming to address political and economic injustices faced by OBC communities in these states. In these states, which collectively account for 282 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP secured 210 seats in the 2019 elections. The party has attempted to court OBC communities while opposing the caste census.
However, the Bihar report has exposed this contradiction, leading many OBC communities to question the BJP’s sincerity in addressing their political and economic concerns. Presently, OBC politics in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are dominated by the opposition parties – JD(U) and RJD in Bihar, and SP in Uttar Pradesh. These two states hold a total of 120 Lok Sabha seats, with the BJP winning 79 in the last election, largely due to the support of JD(U). However, with a split in the alliance, the BJP faces the risk of losing the majority of these seats in 2024. The Bihar Caste Census report has complicated matters, with demands for a fair share of development benefits gaining traction among OBCs.
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The opposition, except for Mamata Banerjee’s TMC, supports the caste census. They may capitalize on the BJP’s resistance to it, framing it as an attempt to deny OBCs their rightful share. This issue has the potential to shape the political narrative across the nation, especially in North India, where the BJP’s identity politics have thrived. As for the Congress, while the outcome remains uncertain, it stands to benefit from this political dynamic. With a nationwide presence, except for Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, Congress may garner support from the extremely backward classes looking for an alternative to dominant OBC politics. the Bihar Caste Census report has set the stage for a new political chapter in India. It has exposed the BJP’s complex relationship with OBC politics and opened the door for the opposition to rally behind the caste census. As the nation approaches the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the impact of this issue on the political landscape cannot be underestimated.
