Covid Is Here To Stay; But…?

Even as the new Covid-19 infections are declining and countries across the world are withdrawing the curbs they had imposed, including the mandatory requirement of wearing masks and physical distancing, the latest IMF working paper says that the pandemic is not over, and the health and economic losses continue to grow. It is now evident that Covid-19 will be with us for the long term and there are very different scenarios for how it could evolve from a mild endemic scenario to a dangerous variant scenario, the study titled – “A Global Strategy to Manage the Long – Term Risks of Covid-19” has emphasised. This realisation calls for a new strategy that manages both the uncertainty and the long-term risks of Covid-19. There are four key policy implications of such a strategy the authors of the paper have said.

First, we need to achieve equitable access beyond vaccines to encompass a comprehensive toolkit. Second, we must monitor the evolving virus and dynamically upgrade that toolkit. Third, we must transition from the acute response to a sustainable strategy toward Covid-19, balanced and integrated with other health and social priorities. And fourth, we need a unified risk-mitigation approach to future infectious disease threats beyond Covid-19. Infectious diseases with pandemic potential are a threat to global economic and health security; the authors have reminded the world while suggesting that the international community should recognise that its pandemic financing addresses a systemic risk to the global economy, not just the development need for a particular country. Additionally, the paper says, the international community should allocate additional funding to fight pandemics and strengthen health systems both domestically and overseas, which will require about USD 15 billion in grants this year and USD 10 billion annually after that.

More than 6 million people have died according to official estimates. However, other studies have estimated the actual death toll ranging from 16 to 20 million, which is approximately equal to that of World War I. IMF’s World Economic Outlook 2022 has projected the cumulative output loss from the pandemic through 2024 to be about USD 13.8 trillion. On tests, the daily target was set at 1 per 1000 people, and about two in three developing economies continue to test below this target despite the Omicron wave. Meanwhile, high-income countries are testing 80 times more than low-income countries. The study foresees at least four possible scenarios in the post-Omicron world, which are based on the conceptualised scenarios of earlier studies published in 2022 by Jeremy Farrar and the WHO. These are “Mild” Endemic, “Injurious” Endemic, “Disruptive” Endemic, and “Dangerous Variant” Scenario. The refreshed ACT Accelerator budget of USD 23.4 billion is a good starting point, the study says, which can be updated as required. However, it mentioned the lack of financing for a balanced and integrated global response. So far only about USD 18.7 billion in grant form for the ACT Accelerator has been raised. The IMF Pandemic Proposal had identified a grant need of USD 35 billion, so a gap of about USD 15 billion remains. Moreover, many hidden scars need to be addressed, because the pandemic has exacerbated inequality, poverty, unemployment, learning poverty, and so on. The world needs a unified approach to the solution to the problem.