For now, Ukraine is far from my bed show for most Middle Eastern nations. The question is not if but when Ukraine will arrive on its doorstep. Two centrifugal forces threaten to push Middle Eastern nations off the tightrope: An increasingly bifurcated world populated by a multitude of civilisationalist leaders in which “you are with us or against us,” and increasingly a need for consistency in the US and Europe’s application of international law and upholding of human and political rights standards. It wouldn’t take much to throw straddlers off balance. The Biden administration is considering sending special forces to guard the newly populated US embassy in Kyiv. What happens if Russian forces strike the embassy much like US forces bombed the Chinese mission in Belgrade in 1999? At the time, China did not respond militarily, but then China was not supporting any party to the wars in former Yugoslavia in ways that the United States and its allies are assisting Ukraine.
Similarly, the risk of escalation exists if the United States, NATO, or individual European countries decide to train Ukrainian forces on Ukrainian soil and are attacked by Russia. To be sure, Russia, like NATO, does not want the war to expand into confrontation, but it would not take much for events to spin out of control. By the same token, Gulf states’ options may narrow if talks in Vienna fail to revive the 2015 agreement that curbed Iran’s nuclear program. US President Joe Biden and Iran have both unsuccessfully tried to use the talks to achieve goals beyond the original agreement, from which then-President Donald J Trump withdrew in 2018. “We do not have a deal … and prospects for reaching one are, at best, tenuous,” Robert Malley, Biden’s special envoy for Iran, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee this week. Malley’s statement came as a covert war between Israel and Iran appeared to escalate, and US officials were seeking to repair relations with Saudi Arabia, possibly paving the way for a visit to the Kingdom by Biden.
Relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia have been cool since Biden called Saudi Arabia a pariah state during his presidential election campaign. He has since effectively boycotted Bin Salman because of the crown prince’s alleged involvement in the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Bin Salman has denied any involvement but said he accepted responsibility for the killing as Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler. As a result of the spat, Bin Salman has rejected the US demands that the kingdom increase oil production to lower prices and inflationary pressures and help Europe reduce its dependency on Russian energy. In doing so, Saudi Arabia is playing with the US the same game that Turkey is engaged in within NATO. Both want to capitalise on US needs for support of Ukraine while not risking the US, and in Turkey’s case NATO security guarantees. However, in the final analysis, Middle Eastern states realise that the United States, in the words of former White House director for the Gulf, Kirsten Fontenrose, “can still easily build global coalitions when necessary. While Russia will be radioactive, more a predatory pariah than a partner.” That may be true for Russia and ultimately a no-brainer for Middle Eastern states once they have milked opportunities for what they are worth.
