Two months have passed since Sheikh Hasina Wazed was ousted from power on August 5, following a student-led mass uprising under the Anti-Discrimination Front, popularly known as the Anti-Quota Movement. On August 8, Nobel Laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus was sworn in as the interim government’s chief adviser, supported by a team of over a dozen advisers. Tasked with ensuring stability, security, and law and order, this interim administration is guiding Bangladesh toward fresh elections in a turbulent political environment.
Dr Yunus has quickly gained public confidence, reflected in recent studies that suggest a growing section of the population supports extending the interim government’s tenure. Many believe that law and order must be restored and the economy stabilized before political parties can take the helm again. In a short time, Yunus has made notable achievements, particularly during his visit to the United Nations General Assembly in New York from September 24 to 27. This visit, described by the local media as his “Mandela moment,” included crucial meetings with global leaders, such as U.S. President Joe Biden, and resulted in promises of economic aid for Bangladesh.
Domestically, the interim government has made headway with its reform agenda. Six commissions have been established, with particular focus on electoral reform, administration, and the judiciary. On October 5, Dr Yunus is set to meet representatives of political parties, excluding the Awami League, to discuss law and order improvements. Additionally, he has sought international assistance for police reforms, engaging Italian Prime Minister Grigori Meloni, which led to further discussions between Italian diplomats and Bangladeshi officials.
A delicate diplomatic balance with India is being maintained. Dr Yunus previously cautioned the Indian government that political remarks made by Sheikh Hasina from Indian soil could damage bilateral ties. India responded by advising Hasina to remain quiet, a request she has honoured, along with her son, Jay Wazed. Consequently, Dr Yunus has opted not to pursue Hasina’s extradition aggressively, a move designed to avoid embarrassing India while effectively marginalizing the Awami League. Most of its leaders are now either in hiding or have been arrested, facing a multitude of charges, including murder.
In the political vacuum left by the Awami League, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Begum Khaleda Zia is emerging as the primary contender for power. The BNP, which has previously governed twice, maintains strong organizational and financial capabilities, with cordial relations with both the U.S. and China. Despite its complex relationship with Dr Yunus, the BNP has yet to significantly influence the interim government.
The military, another key player, has signalled its willingness to extend the interim government’s tenure beyond the previously mentioned 12-18 months, delaying elections- a move the BNP does not favour.
Meanwhile, the student-led Anti-Quota Movement is considering forming a political party. However, internal divisions and differing ideologies within the movement make this a challenging prospect. A newly revitalized Jamaat-e-Islami is also expanding, though its influence within the interim government remains limited. For now, Dr Yunus enjoys substantial support both domestically and internationally. His administration appears to be moving deliberately, not rushing toward elections but focusing on long-term stability.
India must now recalibrate its strategy toward Bangladesh, having inadvertently fuelled anti-India sentiment in recent years. Statements by Indian leaders, including Home Minister Amit Shah’s remarks on Bangladeshi infiltrators, have caused significant damage.
Rebuilding relations will take time, and it is essential for New Delhi to allow its foreign office the autonomy to devise an innovative outreach strategy to mend ties with one of its once-closest neighbours.