The first battle of Panipat in 1526 changed the history of India and began Mughal rule; two and a quarter centuries later, the battle of Plassey changed the course of the history of the Indian nation and had its impact on the global economy. When the Russian army moved into Ukraine on February 24 this year, every expert in warfare and the entire Western Bloc had expected Russia to overrun the victim in a flat 72 hours. Russia, and its President Vladimir Putin, had organised how the victory celebrations were to roll out at the center of Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. However, the last six months of the Ukraine war have defied all logic and expectations. Russia has been exposed as a clumsy, careless, technologically backward country and, yet, extremely dangerous for the world because of its stockpile of nuclear weapons and its scant regard for a rules-based international order. It is an immature dreamy child in a room full of men. Diplomatically and as a military power, Russia has depended on a bluster to prop up its nationalistic pretensions. It had threatened all and sundry with unimaginable destruction in case anyone dared to intervene in Ukraine.
Yet, the USA and Western Europe had intervened in every possible manner in the Ukraine war and directed the course of the war, except participating in Ukraine on the ground. Yet, Russia could not stop any of that, nor provided any deterrence. On the other hand, and in sharp contrast, the combined economic firepower of the entire western world could not undermine the Russian economy. Belying all predictions of calamity and crash, the Russian economy has continued to perform and finance the disastrous military campaign. The Russian ruble has not sunk, despite such threats from the US President, and the economy has defied a sharp contraction as projected by western economists. Even though Russian banks have been thrown out of the international banking clearing infrastructure, they have survived and are doing brisk business with Russia.
The primary reason that Russia could survive the western economic blockade is that the global economy has become multi-polar and no anger depended solely on the combined economic might of Western Europe and the United States. Two emerging market countries, India and China, had tilted the balance and made the difference. Their refusal to accept western economic sanctions against Russia and continued purchase of Russian oils and energy products, India’s purchases of Russian military hardware, and Russian access to these economies for purchase of vital supplies for its survival had bailed out beleaguered Russia. The emerging market economies, on their own, can make a difference in the global economic fortunes and this needs to be taken into account in future calculations of geopolitics. The equations have changed from a Europe-USA-centric world to a broader board, and this was best articulated by Indian foreign minister, S Jaishankar. What is of critical importance for us to realise is that India has emerged out of its cocoon and is a singularly important player in global geopolitics, more so, because of China’s “limitless friendship” with Russia.
