The recent Karnataka assembly elections resulted in a resounding victory for the Congress Party, giving them a much-needed boost ahead of the upcoming Lok Sabha polls in April/May 2024. This win was crucial for the party to establish itself as a formidable force capable of defeating the BJP in a major state. However, the Congress cannot afford to rest on its laurels, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP are known for their ability to bounce back from setbacks. Prime Minister Modi, with the support of the RSS and significant financial resources, will undoubtedly analyze the BJP’s defeat in Karnataka and strategize for future elections. The BJP’s war room will spare no effort to defy the trend indicated by the Karnataka results and maintain their hold on power. The Congress and the opposition must be fully prepared to face this wounded lion. In the remaining part of the year and early 2024, several state assembly elections will take place. The Congress needs to focus on Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh, where they initially won in the 2018 assembly polls but subsequently lost power.
The opposition parties, under the leadership of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, are likely to convene a meeting in Patna or Delhi to discuss unity and prevent a division of anti-BJP votes. It is essential to acknowledge that there cannot be a uniform formula for this understanding, as each state has its own dynamics and political parties are reluctant to compromise their power base. Therefore, allowing the strongest anti-BJP party in each state to take the lead in determining alliance strategies is the best approach. Currently, there is a functional opposition alliance in Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra. This alliance, along with potential additions from other anti-BJP parties, is sufficient to challenge the BJP in these states. In Punjab, where the BJP is not a significant threat, the AAP and Congress will compete in the Lok Sabha polls. However, an understanding between the AAP and Congress may be possible in Delhi to ensure the defeat of the BJP in all seven seats.
Overall, the success of the Congress in defeating the BJP in its strongholds and the capacity of regional alliances to reduce BJP’s Lok Sabha seats will be crucial. While the BJP dominated the Hindi-speaking states in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, apart from Uttar Pradesh, they are expected to face significant losses in the upcoming elections. Currently, the Congress holds 52 seats in the Lok Sabha. With meticulous planning led by Congress strategist Sunil Kanugolu, it is possible to increase their seat tally to 70 to 80 in the next elections. This would place the Congress in the range of 122 to 132 seats, effectively bringing down the BJP to below 170 seats out of the total 543 in the Lok Sabha. The recent Karnataka election results revealed that voters are concerned about joblessness, poverty, and corruption. A national campaign based on these issues should be launched by the united opposition, potentially forming the core of a minimum common program in the days to come. The political climate is favourable for the non-BJP opposition, and the next year leading up to the Lok Sabha elections will be critical for the Congress and other anti-BJP parties. While the battle in Karnataka has been won, the opposition must gear up to secure victory in the final war against the BJP in 2024.
