Even after Pradyot Kishor Manikya Debbarma, chief of the most powerful party of the tribals in Tripura Tipra Motha (TM) sought to carve out a separate state from Tripura, none of the leaders of the major political parties contesting the state Assembly elections have dared to label him a separatist. As the border state goes to the test, Debbarma may emerge as the kingmaker in a closely fought electoral battle. Stated to have personal relations with Union home minister Amit Shah, former Congress chief Rahul Gandhi, TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee and top CPI(M) leaders as well, he is now the man to be on the watch out for. Debbarma has an unquestioned hold on 19 tribal communities of the state. In the terms of a poll strategist, these communities together form 30 percent of the state’s population and are a deciding factor in 20 reserved seats out of 60 in the state Assembly. In the state Assembly, the BJP has 33 legislators, the Indigenous People Front of Tripura has four, the CPI(M) has 13, and Congress has one representative. The rest of the seats are vacant.
Underscoring his common man image, Debbarma’s rallies are sans chairs and sofas for the speakers including himself. He stands on the podium or the ground. The Motha is riding on a demand for tribal autonomy. The Manikya dynasty scion Debbarma is the most visible face of it. Debbarma’s political rivals are only too aware of it. Except for the BJP, none of the other political parties have taken him on openly. Two years ago, Tripura had more than eight parties championing the tribals’ rights. Now it is Motha and Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) is in alliance with BJP, its 2018 ally. Debbarma once headed the state Congress unit. But he left it over to differences on the Citizens Amendment Act (CAA) and ended up setting up Motha. He had accurately sensed the mood of the people. Motha swept the tribal council polls in 2021 riding the Greater Tipraland demand. It is now contesting 42 seats. This includes 22 constituencies outside of 20 Scheduled Tribe seats.
Moreover, Debbarma’s political rivals point out that an alliance with Motha in the state Assembly election may not be such a good idea. Unlike the 2021 Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council elections, tribal areas in Assembly constituencies are spread across the state and scattered over the constituencies. Sounds placating to the Motha have been emanating from the Congress, CPI(M), and Trinamool Congress. For BJP, the stake in the Tripura poll is the biggest among the three Northeast states going to polls in the first phase this month. BJP cannot afford to lose Tripura since this is the only state out of three where it is ruling as the main party. In Meghalaya and Nagaland, BJP is a junior partner of the NDA. In Meghalaya, the alliance has broken and BJP is fighting alone. So, the home minister is again visiting Tripura on February 12 and Prime Minister Narendra Modi on February 11. Both of them want to impart a mega wave among the Tripura electorate in the last days of the campaign. The results on March 2 will only indicate whether BJP’s last-minute efforts will succeed.
