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Friday, March 29, 2024

State Polls: Acid Test For BJP, Cong

Jammu and Kashmir may also go for polls, the first since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. Congress, BJP, and regional parties are all playing it, marshalling all their resources. The states where BJP and Congress remain the leading contenders are- big states like Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. Congress is ruling Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, BJP Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh. A two percent swing, either way, would change the results.

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There could be a musical chair this year with nine states going for elections. It will be a trailer and the semi-final before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The results will show whether the BJP continues to sway the voters or the Congress-led Opposition will defeat the BJP in the upcoming elections. Regional satraps would naturally want to protect their turf. The nine election-bound states are Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, and the four northeastern states, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Tripura. The poll schedule runs through the year. Meghalaya, Nagaland, and Tripura will go to polls in February, and Karnataka in April-May. Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, and Mizoram will face elections at the year-end. Jammu and Kashmir may also go for polls, the first since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. Congress, BJP, and regional parties are all playing it, marshalling all their resources. The states where BJP and Congress remain the leading contenders are- big states like Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. Congress is ruling Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, BJP Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh. A two percent swing, either way, would change the results.

The BJP wants to expand further while Congress struggles to raise its head. It has already lost the northeastern states, which was its stronghold at one point of time to the BJP, and BJP has increased its foothold steadily everywhere. Even the Left have lost Tripura to the B JP. With such high stakes, the worst-case scenario for Congress is to lose Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and not win any of the other seven states. The best-case scenario is to retain what it has and gain more. The BJP is on a mission mode. Mission 350′ (to get 350 seats in Lok Sabha) is their stated goal. It is going all out to enable Prime Minister Narendra Modi to perform a hat trick.’ The two parties have already begun their poll exercises, with Modi campaigning in the North East and the Congress concentrating on Rahul’s Bharat Jodo Yatra. Key regional players like the ambitious Telangana Chief Minister K. Chandrashekhar Rao, hoping for a hat trick, is also preparing for the battle of 2023.

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The BJP wants to focus on the South, which has 129 seats, of which the party has only 29 seats, 25 coming from Karnataka. The party wants to win at least 50 seats. But the regional satraps have a firm hold in Southern states, be it Telangana or Kerala. After completing Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo’ Yatra recently, the Congress workers are enthused. Congress has to find a balance between old guards and younger leaders. Thirdly, Congress must choose a new, catchy narrative and raise correct issues, particularly of interest to the common man, like bread and butter issues. For the BJP, money is no constraint, nor is the organization. Above all, The BJP depends on Modi’s magic to sway the voters. Each player has to use a different poll strategy to win and go for a suitable alliance. The Congress needs a different narrative, while the BJP ideology does not attract people in the South. The parties have to overcome some disadvantages to utilize their advantages successfully. Ultimately, it all depends on the voters and luck.

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The Hills Times
The Hills Timeshttps://www.thehillstimes.in/
The Hills Times, a largely circulated English daily published from Diphu and printed in Guwahati, having vast readership in hills districts of Assam, and neighbouring Nagaland, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur.
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