The 2023 assembly election season has started with the polls in Tripura scheduled on February 16 and Meghalaya, Nagaland on February 27. The results of all three states in the first phase will be known on March 2. The outcome will be having a significant impact on the tempo of the poll campaign in the remaining six states scheduled during the year. Karnataka will be facing elections in the second phase in April/May this year. As indications suggest, the all-powerful BJP, despite its massive resources and continuous campaigns by both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah is set to lose power as the junior partner in Meghalaya. In Tripura, the BJP is in a tight condition as its partner of the alliance IFTF has lost its earlier base to the new tribal party Tipra Motha (TM) which is fighting alone with the option open for limited understanding with the main alliance of the Left Front led by the CPI(M) and the Congress. Nagaland is the only state where the BJP is confident to come back as a junior partner in the regional party-led alliance. Out of 60 seats, BJP is contesting 20 and its regional partner is contesting the remaining 40 seats.
In Meghalaya, the ruling NPP led by Conrad Sangma is contesting in all seats, and so is its NDA partner BJP. Similarly, Trinamool Congress and Congress also are contesting 60 seats each. The contest will be three-cornered between NPP, TMC, and Congress with the BJP playing a marginal role. Congress got 21 seats in 2018 polls with the highest vote percentage of 28.5 percent. BJP got only 2 seats with 9.6 percent votes. Congress, despite defections, still retains a big base in Meghalaya. If the party can get adequate central help, they can certainly get some seats. But the problem with the Congress in NE states is that the central leadership has abandoned the region. The BJP always sends its top leaders to the NE states to help the state party units. But the Congress has allowed the NE states, once its stronghold to slip away from its control to BJP. Assam chief minister Dr. Himanta Biswa Sharma is in charge of NDA in the NE region and no one in the Congress can match his organizational skill.
After the success of the Bharat Jodo Yatra, the Congress’s high command must give full attention to the election preparedness in these three states. If the BJP loses power in two states out of three that will give a big push to the campaign in Karnataka in the second phase. Congress is already advantageously placed in Karnataka against the BJP. A big new push is needed to defeat the BJP in the assembly polls in Karnataka. For that, the party leadership should proceed with a killer instinct against the BJP. There is no time to lose. BJP’s defeat in the first phase is essential to impart a big momentum to the entire opposition in its campaign in the next six assembly polls during the year 2023.
