By: Debabrata Biswas
A 2024 presidential election featuring President Joe Biden against former president Donald Trump would be a “rematch from hell” – former Republican congressman Will Hard said – “The reality is two third Americans want somebody else”. There’s evidence to support Hard’s argument that another presidential election featuring Biden and Trump is unpopular among most Americans, Democrats or Republicans, according to recent polls. But right now, unfortunately, both the candidates are polling well ahead of the others in their respective party’s field and a rematch seems quite possible.
Trump has already announced his candidacy in the Republican primary and started his campaign vigorously. He is confident he will face no real challenge from any of his rivals including De Santis .governor of Florida, who hasn’t yet formally announced his candidature, but projected by many as the only challenger of Trump in Republican Party. Trump has already started to attack and demean De Santis vilifying him as usual in his blunt and screwed manner. It seems that Trump’s candidacy is almost ensured as he still draws a huge support among his core Republican base. His arrest and indictment in Manhattan court, New York in a civil suit involving hush money payment to pornstar Stormy Daniel didn’t have any visible negative impact on his supporters, which are many, among Republicans, rather apparently strengthened his case among his diehard followers.
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Actually his poll numbers improved after the indictment. He somehow is able to show himself as a victim of a political and personal ploy on the part of the Democrats and liberals to destroy him who is the saviour of America. He collected several million dollars from his supporters before and after the Manhattan indictment. In the rape and defamation case, filed by Jean E Carroll against him, Trump was found guilty and was ordered to pay $ 5 million to Carroll in compensatory and punitive damages. It seems unlikely America’s polarized political climate that the court’s verdict would have an impact on Trump’s core supporters, who view his legal woes as part of a concerted effort by opponents to undermine him. “The folks that are anti- Trump are going to remain that way, the core pro- Trump voters are not going to change and the ambivalent ones, I just don’t think are going to be moved by this type of things”- said Charlie Gerow, a Republican strategist.” Any negative impact is likely to be small and limited to suburban women and moderate Republicans”- he said.
Though, apart from the cases, Trump will have to face of series of indictments in civil and criminal suits by Federal and state agencies in very near future, it is unlikely to bear any fruitful results before the 2024 presidential election. In the meantime, Trump is going to get momentum in his bid to win the primary nomination, keeping in mind even the disastrous flow of information that would come out from the three major criminal investigations he already faces, biz – Capitol Hill Riots, Georgia Fulton county investigation and classified Govt. documents at Mar-a-Lago. If any surprising twist does not happen to the present scenario, Trump is going to be elected as the Republican presidential candidate for 2024 at the Republican Convention next year.
President Joe Biden formally launched his 2024 bid in April 2023 asking voters to give the chance to ‘finish the job’ he’d started. Still now there is no serious challenger to his second time bid. Generally, most of the American presidents win their nomination for the second term; but here his age and mental frailty pose a question mark. In 2024 he will be 82 years of age. Rather than ceding the ground to the next generation he claims that he is the Democratic Party’s most assured candidate to beat Donald Trump next year. So it would be a rematch.
If we look through the history there were several rematches between the winner and first time losers in presidential election in America. It started with John Adams vs. Thomas Jefferson in 1796 and 1800. Then again between Quincy Adams and Jackson in 1824 and 1828, Martin Van Buren vs William Harry in 1836 and 1840, William Mackinley vs William Jennings Bryan in 1896 and 1900. But the process and the law of voting and selection was different then. For several years now, neither major political parties have been keen on giving unsuccessful nominees a second bite of the Apple. The last time that happened was in 1968, when Republicans chose Richard Nixon who had lost to John F Kennedy in 1960. Should a Biden – Trump sequel come about, it would be the seventh presidential rematch in US history.
Though history being in his side, Biden will start with two handicaps. First, he would be the oldest person to hold the American Presidential job- would be 86 years by the end of his second term. Throughout presidency Biden has faced questions about his health and at times seemed frail and confused. It’s an issue that voters, including Democrats and Independents have expressed concern about. A recent New York Times editorial wrote-” Concern about the age, both in terms of fitness for office and being out of touch with the moment- are legitimate.” The Wall Street Journal in its editorial put it more bluntly – “that electing an octogorian in obvious decline for another four years could be an historic mistake.” Trump also faces concern about his age, with 35% of the Republicans saying he is too old to run.
While the left wing senator Bernie Sanders and most selected Democratic officials are backing Biden, votes have doubt about him. Some 44% of Democratic voters say he is too old to run, although it showed him with a lead of 43% to 38% over Trump nationally.
Secondly, on economic issues Biden’ poll ratings have sunk and it did not rise since last few months .But he has a solid standing on a number of policy issues and enactment of popular legislations. Biden said, “When I ran for president four years ago, I said we’re in a battle for the soul of America and we still are .This is not time to be complacent. That’s why I’m running for re election. – Let’s finish the job. I know we can”
As both Biden are Trump poised for a fight again, national polls by Reuters and IPSOS indicate a majority of American voters have little appetite for a replay. But they may be stuck with it as both men are difficult to be dislodged. Biden has the advantage of incumbency while Trump, as a former president with an iron like grip on his party’s grassroot base, is a quasi- incumbent on Republican side.
Michael Steel, a former chairman of Republican National Committee said, “There is nothing inspirational about politics today; – It’s a challenge today to engage independent voters and young people to participate in an election they are not thrilled about.”
In another opinion, Bill Glastonbury, a former advisor to President Bill Clinton said – “There’s not a lot of enthusiasm for a re match but in the end people are going to choose sides very firmly and I do not expect it to be a low- turnout election”. I personally think, if Trump is the Republican nominee, there’s a pretty chance the 2024 election would also become a referendum on Trump.
Trump is uniquely vulnerable this time after becoming the first president impeached twice and to face criminal charges and because of an array of judicial investigations. If Trump prevails as Republican candidate it will become a referendum on Trump. Democrats insist they can overcome voter fatigue.
Biden entered White House with an approval rate of 53%, but that number has since sunk. His current approval is 43%, though it is higher than Trump. Trump has 38% approval rating among American voters at present. When the question comes who is favoured to win 2024 presidential election in USA, the top 4 probable candidates have the following polling numbers – Joe Biden 40%, Donald Trump 29%”, Ron DeSantis 17%, Robert F Kennedy Jr.( D) 5% according to WPA poll. The survey also said that Trump’s deficit could grow 10% if he is indicted by Fulton County, Georgia investigation. Among Independents Trump’s deficit could grow to 21% with Trump 29% and Biden 50%. At present 73% of the Republican voters support Trump but if he is indicted in any criminal case, he might lose 5% of support from GOP voters. Amaand Jovino, a principal in WPA said that in case Trump is indicted in any Federal case, it would energize Democrats nor Republicans
In sum, though Biden has two major weaknesses as a candidate – age and decreased approval ratings, he has a possibility to defeat Donald Trump. But it would not be an easy one. There is still a long gap of time. Anything might happen to tilt the balance to any side. It might even happen that new candidates on both sides appear when the primaries start early next year. But as of now, it’s a Presidential battle between two old contenders. (IPA Service)
