By: Sagarneel Sinha
Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) leaving the BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was only a matter of time as the latter clearly stated that it won’t renew its alliance with the former. The saffron party allied with United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) – BPF’s rival in the Bodoland region – last year by choosing over its then existing ally BPF to form the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC). It was this decision of the saffron party that BPF wasn’t able to form the council for the first time in the last 15 years.
However, there were speculations that BPF may join the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) – Raijor Dal alliance. But the party poured cold water to all these speculations by formally joining the Grand Alliance consisting of Congress, Badruddin Ajmal led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), CPI, CPI(M), CPI(ML)(L) and Aanchalik Gana Mancha (AGM), a newly formed regional party led by journalist and Rajya Sabha MP Ajit Bhuyan.
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No doubt, BPF’s decision to join the Grand Alliance has brought cheers to all the constituents, including Congress, the leader of the alliance. Notably, BPF before joining hands with BJP in 2016 was in alliance with Congress in the state for a long time. But the question is will the Congress-led Grand Alliance be able to defeat the BJP led NDA with the help of BPF?
BPF is mainly a Bodo-based party with its hold primarily based in the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) consisting of four districts – Udalguri, Chirang, Kokrajhar and Baksha. Bodos account for around 5-6% of the state population and the BTR region constitutes around 12 assembly seats. Besides, there are a few additional seats with a small section of Bodo voters. In the last assembly election, BPF contesting 13 seats as an NDA constituent came victorious in 12 assembly seats.
Although the BPF wasn’t able to form the BTC for the first time last year, the Hagrama Mohillary led party managed to emerge as the single largest party in the BTC elections by winning 17 seats. Its Bodo-based rival UPPL, now a constituent of NDA, grabbed 12 seats while BJP won 9 seats. This shows that BPF is still a force to reckon with in the Bodoland region.
Nevertheless, it’s a fact that BPF’s support in the Bodoland region has been declining. In the first BTC election held in 2005, the BPF won a big mandate by garnering 35 seats out of 40. But in the subsequent elections, the seat tally of BPF decreased. The Bodo party won 26, 20 and 17 seats in 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. This shows that the support of BPF – despite being a significant force in the region – has been declining.
Not only this, BPF failed to win the Kokrajhar Lok Sabha seat both in the 2014 and 2019 elections by losing to Naba Sarania, who now leads the Gana Shakti Party – which is also supporting the UPPL-BJP alliance in the BTC.
Importantly, in the Bodoland region, Bodos account for only around 27% of the population. The majority – non-Bodos – have their own problems in the region, who usually differ from the Bodos. Non-Bodos residing in the Bodoland region have always been strictly opposed to the creation of the Bodoland state. This tension between the Bodos and non-Bodos has resulted in polarization in the region in the past. It is this polarization that helped Naba Sarania – a non-Bodo – to defeat the BPF both in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections in the Kokrajhar Lok Sabha constituency.
On the other hand, while BPF has been losing its support in the Bodoland region, its rival UPPL has been able to increase its base in the region. In the 2015 BTC elections, UPPL’s earlier avatar People’s Coordination for Democratic Rights (PCDR) managed to garner 7 seats – and in 2020, UPPL managed to increase 5 seats. UPPL’s ally BJP too was able to increase 8 seats in the 2020 elections as it gained support from non-Bodos.
However, the transfer of Muslim votes to BPF came as a consolation for the party. Not to forget that Congress has allied with its once arch-rival AIUDF only to ensure the Muslim votes in the upcoming state assembly elections. Muslims constitute around 34% of the state population making the community a key player in the formation of the government in Dispur.
It’s also true that the transfer of Muslim votes to BPF heavily cost the Congress-AIUDF alliance in the 2020 BTC election with AIUDF losing all its 4 seats while Congress somehow managing to open its account. But at the same time, it can’t be denied that both the NDA constituents – BJP and UPPL – over the last years have been able to increase their bases in the region. No doubt that BPF’s joining hands with Grand Alliance would prevent the split of Muslim votes but it remains to be seen whether a declining BPF would be able to counter the emerging UPPL and BJP in the Bodoland region. (IPA Service)
