By: Dipak Kurmi
The ongoing era of political coalitions, as characterized by former Marxist leader Jyoti Basu, remains a complex puzzle for both the Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies within the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance. This evolving landscape presents challenges and uncertainties, with both sides navigating through various permutations and combinations of political dynamics.
On one hand, the INDIA bloc represents a cohesive coalition, formed organically to unite diverse interests. However, at the regional level, finding compatible partners proves challenging due to the absence of inherent alliances. Coalitions are meticulously constructed to pool votes and amplify their collective influence, aiming to secure more seats collectively than individually. Consequently, the inability to broker seat-sharing arrangements proves detrimental to the INDIA bloc while offering advantageous opportunities for the BJP.
The coalition’s lack of cohesion stems from its diverse origins and ideological foundations. Some parties, such as the Left parties, DMK, Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, and Shiv Sena, are deeply rooted in specific ideologies. Conversely, breakaway factions like the Trinamul Congress and Nationalist Congress Party contribute to the mix. Many emerged as anti-Congress entities and maintain their regional antagonism towards the party, exemplified by leaders like Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and Pinarayi Vijayan in Kerala. Arvind Kejriwal adopts a multifaceted approach, collaborating with allies in Delhi while opposing them in Punjab. Despite their diverse origins and strategies, all these parties currently share a common stance as anti-BJP entities.
The BJP has emphasized the disparities among the members of the INDIA bloc, labeling the alliance as a non-starter due to its apparent disintegration. Additionally, the BJP has accused the coalition of colluding to deceive the public. By conflating these criticisms, the BJP underscores the intricate nature of coalition building within a challenging political environment.
The dynamics have bestowed upon the BJP the perception of being straightforward, steady, well-coordinated, and led by a commanding figure who makes decisive decisions. Conversely, the INDIA bloc seems unstable, lacking organization, entangled in conflicting interests, and burdened by numerous leaders without a clear icon.
The challenges of negotiating seat allocations, along with Nitish Kumar’s departure and the dissolution of the “Mahagatbandhan” in Bihar, have reinforced the perception that the INDIA bloc is fragile and incapable of serving as a viable alternative to the BJP under its decisive leader.
The notion of the new coalition transforming into a cohesive, well-structured entity was debunked as a myth, as asserted by Mamata Banerjee, with support from allies like Arvind Kejriwal and Akhilesh Yadav. Even the BJP and other stakeholders recognized that regional differences would persist despite the formation of the INDIA alliance. While Mamata Banerjee’s proposal for regional parties to challenge the BJP individually on their home turf had merit, it was ultimately deemed unrealistic in practice.
Evaluating the coalition’s potential and capabilities presents a multifaceted challenge. Can the coalition wield enough influence to intimidate even Prime Minister Narendra Modi? On the day of the INDIA bloc’s massive rally at Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan, Modi’s remarks in Meerut conveyed a defiant stance, asserting, “I am not scared.” This implied that the Opposition’s attempts to instill fear were perceived as a tactic to deter him from addressing their alleged corruption scandals.
In essence, the public narrative portrays contrasting images of both the Opposition and Mr. Modi. On one hand, the Opposition is depicted as a formidable force, yet internally fractured and vulnerable to disintegration. Conversely, Modi’s image is carefully crafted into two distinct personas: firstly, as a determined leader focused on delivering results and fulfilling promises, and secondly, as a solitary figure tirelessly fighting against corruption, dynastic politics, and social division.
The notion of a fearful Narendra Modi is not only absurd but also warrants analysis as a strategic maneuver.
If the BJP’s leader is indeed mobilizing his core support base, it suggests a level of uncertainty regarding the attainment of his goal of securing 370 out of 543 Lok Sabha seats in the upcoming election. However, this seems contradictory, as Modi’s campaign heavily emphasizes his assurances of ushering in a fully developed economy in his third term, implying a high level of confidence in his re-election as Prime Minister.
Despite the perplexing shifts in the BJP’s campaign narrative, the truth remains that the Opposition lacks the agility and astuteness to counter these maneuvers effectively. Expressing apprehensions about the elections being akin to a “fixed” cricket match, orchestrated for a BJP victory and Modi’s return as Prime Minister for a third term, fails to offer any fresh insights or alternative perspectives.
The Ramlila Maidan rally provided a platform for the unified Opposition to connect with voters nationwide, with coalition partners from various states participating in the event. However, its inability to effectively capitalize on this opportunity highlights a lack of strategic planning to challenge the BJP’s narrative and offer a compelling alternative vision to voters.
Drawing a contrast between urging voters to decide between dictatorship and democracy and soliciting their input on the release of Arvind Kejriwal illustrates a difference in approach: one abstract and the other concrete, prompting tangible action. Merely alluding to “match-fixing” without proactive engagement fails to resonate with voters effectively. It appears that the leadership of the INDIA bloc has yet to articulate a clear directive for voters beyond advocating “No Vote to the BJP.”
In contrast, the BJP’s campaign operates on two fronts: rallying voters to support its stance against both the collective Opposition and regional parties, while simultaneously positioning itself as the sole provider of stability amid uncertain times. By leveraging conditions of uncertainty, the BJP has transformed the destabilization of the Opposition, particularly state ruling parties, into a strategic advantage. This involves tactics such as engineering defections, fragmenting parties, and taking legal action against key figures, including current and former chief ministers like Kejriwal and Hemant Soren, the latter stepping down before facing arrest by the Enforcement Directorate.
The INDIA bloc has been deeply preoccupied with countering the BJP’s destabilization tactics, leaving little opportunity to transition into a credible alternative. Consequently, it remains entrenched in its role as the perennial opposition, constantly challenging but unable to emerge as a transformative force. (The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
