As Myanmar grapples with internal turmoil following the military coup in February 2021, China’s stance on the conflict appears to be undergoing a nuanced shift. Initially downplaying the coup as a mere “cabinet reshuffle,” China maintained support for the military junta despite Western sanctions and allegations of human rights abuses. In a notable development, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of ethnic militias with reported ties to China’s security services, executed a significant attack in northern Myanmar, capturing over 200 army bases and vital border crossings. This marked a shift in dynamics, signaling a departure from China’s previous unwavering support for the junta.
The Alliance’s success prompted a surge in assaults by various armed groups, leading to a conflict that now spans two-thirds of the country, displacing hundreds of thousands. The Alliance’s objective to eradicate online scam operations along the Myanmar-China border, linked to trafficking and generating billions in revenue, raised concerns for China’s security. In November, speculations arose about China reconsidering its stance, coinciding with anti-China protests organized by the junta’s backers. However, China swiftly reassured the junta through joint naval drills and diplomatic discussions. On December 14th, a temporary truce was declared, showcasing China’s intricate and sometimes contradictory approach to Myanmar.
China’s substantial economic ties with Myanmar, including a $35 billion investment in infrastructure projects, reveal its long-term interests. This initiative aims to provide China with direct access to the Indian Ocean, reducing dependence on the strategic Strait of Malacca. In contrast, India’s investment in a road construction project linking Myanmar to northeastern India pales in comparison at $500 million. China’s strategic calculus also considers security concerns, fearing the spill-over of instability along its 2,000-kilometer border with Myanmar. Criminal activities, especially the online scam industry, have become a priority in Chinese foreign policy. The former foreign minister’s visit to Myanmar in May highlighted concerns about tens of thousands of Chinese citizens unlawfully transported to Myanmar for engaging in scams, with the military showing reluctance to intervene. China’s shifting focus towards ethnic militias, such as the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, indicates a pragmatic approach. While not direct proxies, these militias pursue their interests, forming alliances with pro-democracy factions. China, however, intermittently exerts influence, as seen in the recent offensive and subsequent ceasefire facilitated on December 14th.
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The complexity of China’s Myanmar strategy arises from tensions between long-term economic interests, security concerns, and a desire to prevent Myanmar from aligning with pro-Western democrats. As the conflict unfolds, China’s role in facilitating truces and navigating alliances underscores its pragmatic and self-serving approach. In contrast to India and Russia’s engagements with the junta, China’s extensive investments solidify its support for Myanmar’s military. Yet, the evolving dynamics, marked by ethnic militias gaining prominence, highlight the challenges in maintaining a consistent stance. In this intricate geopolitical landscape, China’s actions in Myanmar reflect a delicate balancing act, prioritizing both economic interests and security considerations. As the conflict evolves, China’s role remains pivotal, shaping the future trajectory of Myanmar and influencing the regional geopolitical balance. In the evolving Myanmar conflict, China’s strategic shift, initially supportive of the military junta, is evident. Balancing long-term economic interests, security concerns, and the complexities of regional alliances, China’s actions have far-reaching implications. As it navigates this delicate geopolitical landscape, China’s influence over ethnic militias and facilitation of truces showcase its pivotal role in shaping Myanmar’s future.
