In a bid to counter the growing unity among opposition parties, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) meeting on July 18. The NDA, which played a crucial role in helping Modi become Prime Minister in 2014 and 2019, has been facing challenges due to the BJP’s arrogance and suspicion towards its alliance partners. However, recent realizations have dawned upon the BJP that Modi alone and the BJP cannot guarantee victory in the upcoming 2024 elections. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a prominent right-wing organisation, was the first to express doubts about Modi’s ability to secure a clear victory for the BJP in 2024. This scepticism, coupled with the opposition parties’ manoeuvres to forge unity against Modi, has created an urgent need to revive the NDA. Nonetheless, reviving the NDA is not an easy task, as it requires breathing life into the nearly comatose alliance. The BJP’s arrogance and the perception that it intended to undermine smaller parties, regardless of their allegiance, has eroded trust among its erstwhile partners. A notable example is the relationship between the BJP and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, where the BJP split from Shiv Sena to form a government with a breakaway faction of the party. The support of BJP-backed Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena now favours the BJP in Maharashtra.
Another significant blow to the NDA came when Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) broke its alliance with the BJP and joined forces with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) to maintain power. Lalu Prasad Yadav, a prominent member of the opposition alliance, has vowed to replace Narendra Modi with Rahul Gandhi in the 2024 elections, making the BJP uncertain about its expected tally of seats in Bihar. In Bihar, the NDA faces a fragmented landscape with small parties like Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party, and Sanjay Nishad’s Nishad Party standing against the RJD, JD(U), and Congress alliance. This makes the NDA appear weak and vulnerable in Bihar. The Akali Dal, a staunch ally of the BJP, was once a prominent member of the NDA. However, suspicion between the two parties led to the Akali Dal severing ties and contesting the Punjab assembly elections independently. Although there have been reports of potential reconciliation, an Akali Dal spokesperson stated that there had been no invitation for the NDA meeting.
While the BJP acknowledges the significance of the opposition unity meeting scheduled for July 17-18 in Bengaluru, the NDA meet is unrelated to the parliamentary session starting on July 20. The purpose of the NDA meeting is to discuss the strategy for the 2024 general elections and revitalize the struggling alliance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, recognising the RSS’s concerns, has taken the conclusion for the 2024 general elections seriously, as compared to the robust “Mahagathbandhan”, the NDA, as it stands today, is hardly worth its acronym. The NDA’s influence is limited to a few regions, with multiple impenetrable gaps in the southern states. The NDA’s delayed meeting in this second term of Modi may have come too late, as the BJP seems lacking its previous vigour. There is an undeniable sense that more than just double anti-incumbency against Prime Minister Narendra Modi is contributing to this decline.
